MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Boom year for Brazilian farmers with record soybean crop and drought punishing Argentine production

Abiove now estimates Brazil’s soy production at a record 153.6 million tons, one million more than the last projection last January.

Brazil’s soybean output and exports in 2023 will be higher than expected, Brazilian oilseed lobby Abiove announced this week, as local farmers harvest a bumper crop. Abiove now estimates Brazil’s soy production at a record 153.6 million tons, one million more than the last projection last January.

The new forecast comes as farmers have reaped more than 50% of the country’s fields, and shows an 18.2% increase if compared to the previous cycle, when the crop was hit by a drought in southern states.

“The projections for the current cycle remain optimistic, pointing to a record production of 153.6 million tons of soybeans, mainly due to the recovery of the historical trend in yields, in addition to the expansion of the cultivated area,” Abiove said in a statement.

The forecast for Brazilian soybean exports in 2023 has also been increased by 300,000 tons to a record 92.3 million tons, Abiove said, 17.2% above the 78.7 million tons seen in 2022.

Brazilian estimates are good news for local farmers since Chinese demand remains strong and Argentine growers grapple with weather issues and lower production volume..

Abiove kept the projection for domestic soy processing at the unprecedented level of 52.5 million tons for 2023, 1.6 million-ton more than in 2022.

It also raised the expectation for soyoil and soymeal exports as Argentina, the world’s biggest supplier of both, faces a sharp drought-related soy supply reduction, paving the way for Brazil to sell more byproducts.

Abiove said soyoil exports may reach 2.15 million tons, up from 1.75 million tons in January’s projection. For soymeal, Abiove raised the forecast for exports to 20.7 million tons, compared with 20 million tons.