MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

India forecasted to become fourth and third world economy in one to three years

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that India is expected to overtake Japan and Germany to emerge as the world's third-largest economy by 2027

India is set to become a US$ 4 trillion economy in 2025,surpassing Japan by early next fiscal to become the world's fourth largest economy, Indian Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Sanjeev Sanyal said last week, confirming the IMF half year World Economic Outlook database.

Sanyal further said that a 7% economic growth rate will be a 'very good' rate for India, given various constraints, including the country's weak exports.

“So, this financial year, we will become a US$4 trillion economy,” he pointed out adding that by 2027 India's economy would become the world's third largest, behind only US and China.

Recently, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that India is expected to overtake Japan and Germany to emerge as the world's third-largest economy by 2027. Currently, in US dollar terms database, India is the fifth largest economy with a size of about US$3.7 trillion in nominal terms. Sanyal said Japan is now just a little ahead India with US$4.1 trillion.

“So, either very early next year or even you know this year, we will cross Japan to become the world's fourth largest economy,” Sanyal added. “Besides, Germany is a US$4.6 trillion economy and 'it is not growing', so makes it a static target.”
“Maybe in two years, we will go past Germany. So, I think in terms of becoming the world's third largest economy, we are reasonably now close to the target,” he said.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Fitch Ratings have estimated India's growth at 7 per cent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), S&P Global Ratings and Morgan Stanley projected a 6.8 per cent growth rate for fiscal year 2025.

Responding to a question on the internationalization of the rupee, Sanyal said it is about converting the rupee into a hard currency.

“We only aspire over the next decade or so to become a hard currency like many of the others, we are not attempting to become the world's anchor currency,” he added. “With an inflation rate targeting mechanism implemented by government, ”the rupee essentially becomes a commonly used hard currency, at least commonly used for things relating to India and Indian trade”.