MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Scioli's candidacy a Kirchner need, not a heartfelt desire.

President Néstor Kirchner's likely decision to send in Vice-President Daniel Scioli to run for governor in Argentina's richest district next year would not reflect so much his heartfelt desires, but sheer political need after a tiny province dealt him a severe blow.

Misiones in late October voted to deny Governor Carlos Rovira the possibility of reelection. The President had travelled there to publicly support Rovira ahead of the polls, whose result dramatically changed the country's political scenario. That vote forced another ally of centre-left Kirchner, Buenos Aires Governor Felipe Solá, to abandon his hopes of seeking reelection in a province that houses nearly 40 percent of Argentina's 38 million residents. The Misiones polls had a highly symbolic effect, considering that Kirchner himself had reformed the Santa Cruz Constitution to get indefinite reelection â€" and that he has been widely accused of concentrating too much power â€" and of seeking to perpetuate in office. Stopping Mike Hammer But the Misiones effect went beyond sheer symbolism. It forced Kirchner â€" whose ruthless political methods would have delighted Mike Hammer, the brutal detective of US series in the 1960s â€" to pick Scioli to face potential rivals such as anti-crime crusader Juan Carlos Blumberg or centre-right deputy and tycoon Mauricio Macri. "Misiones told Kirchner that he can no longer go ahead as a steamroller," Sergio Berensztein, a political professor with the Di Tella University told MercoPress.Political pundit Jorge Giacobbe quipped: "After Misiones, Kirchner was left with no choice but to send Scioli, who has an about 30 percent positive image, to challenge possible rivals like Macri, or Blumberg, whose image is also reported to measure about 30 percent." But not everybody agrees. Observer Carlos Fara thinks that the Misiones effect has been overblown and that a possible Scioli candidacy in the province could be just a test balloon to gauge people's mood. Scioli has allegedly the best image among Argentine politicians after Kirchner and first lady and Senator Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. The President had other potential candidates, some of them who had even expressed their intentions to run for the Buenos Aires governorship such as Solá, Interior Minister Aníbal Fernández and Senator José Pampuro. Other candidates included Lower House Speaker Alberto Balestrini, La Plata Mayor Julio Alak and provincial Government (Interior) Minister Florencio Randazzo. None of them were up to the possible challenge that would mean a candidacy of Macri, or Blumberg, an engineer who became an anti-crime crusader after his son Axel was killed by a gang of kidnappers in the Greater Buenos Aires in 2004. Security quicksand Blumberg has been fiercely confronting the government on an arena where the government doesn't feel at ease: security. Although crime has declined somewhat from a 2004 peak that included a yearly annual rate of 400 kidnappings, security continues to be one of the main demands among Argentines, mainly in the Greater Buenos Aires, the industrial belt surrounding the federal capital and that has become a hotbed for crime after Argentina's worst-ever economic crisis blew up in late 2001. Blumberg has called several rallies which have been attended by a total of more than 300,000 people. To send in Scioli to the province would be wise, Giacobbe said. "So far, one of the most likely scenarios was a confrontation between two hot-tempered men: Aníbal Fernández and Blumberg. That would be a head-on train-collision. The gentle-mannered Scioli will steal the security thunder from Blumberg." Some even say that so much so that Blumberg may now think it twice before possibly running for governor. Daniel in the lions' den The President and Scioli come from rival factions of the Peronist party. Kirchner had put Scioli in the freezer since late 2003, after Scioli "dared" to advocate an increase in frozen public fees and criticized the annulment by Congress of pardon laws that benefited hundreds of military accused of violating human rights during the 1976-1983 dictatorship. At that time Kirchner mercilessly toppled Scioli from the helm of the Tourism secretariat. But Scioli has shown highly resilient and "adaptable." After meeting the President last month he said that he felt honoured that Kirchner considered him up to fight for the Buenos Aires governorship. And it would be a challenge indeed as whoever seeks to govern it will have to face an outrageous crime which has included robbers torturing and killing dozens of elderly people in the province this year. Also, the provincial 45,000-strong police force has been facing steady purges over the last two years to rid it of trigger-happy cases, entrenched corruption and other crimes. Besides, the province is in dire financial straits. "As a matter of fact, Kirchner may be actually throwing Scioli into the lions' den," Giacobbe said. Sheet too short for city One of the unwanted effects for the government's of its possibly sending Scioli to the province is that he was also its best precandidate for the mayoralty of Buenos Aires City, the country's second largest district. Now the national administration needs a suitable candidate for the city and the name of Education Minister Daniel Filmus is being considered, although he is a rather-low profile man. Another, although less likely candidate, would be the charismatic Mayor Jorge Telerman who some say dreams of running on his own. Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernández could be the main winner of Scioli's dropping out from the city race, as Fernández would be getting rid of a candidate against whom none of his own dauphins would have any chance. Telerman is fiercely confronted with Fernández, one of Kirchner's staunchest supporters and his political coordinator in the city. But if the mayor's image grows, Kirchner may finally decide to coopt him despite Fernández reluctance. Cristina for president? Buenos Aires province has been traditionally so hard to tame that many observers dismiss speculation that the first lady could seek to run for the governorship. "President Kirchner would never allow his surname to suffer what be a tremendous erosion in such a difficult district," Giacobbe said. Berensztein stated: "Cristina would never let her image be eroded as Buenos Aires governor. Either she will seek reelection as senator, or she will run for president." But, would a man who has been doing nothing in life but building power pass it onto his wife's hands after he has got it? Why not?, say some. "It could be a smart coup de main after Misiones. In that way the President would ally criticism that he is excessively power-greedy and, after a Cristina period, he could attempt to make a comeback in 2011," said Ricardo Monner Sans, an anti-corruption campaigner who is also a political observer. Kirchner has been hinting this year that the government's candidate could be a woman. "It can be either a he-penguin or a she-penguin," he said, referring to himself by the nickname of "penguin" he earned from his coming from Patagonia, where those birds abound. He even said that Cristina has the required conditions for president. However others warn that Cristina has a political career on her own right and that she is very ambitious politically. If she eventually becomes president, would she be willing to relinquish power onto Néstor Kirchner's hands? By Guillermo Háskel- MercoPress Buenos Aires

Categories: Mercosur.

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