MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina records historic foreign trade surplus

Imports are expected to grow as the Argentine peso appreciates against the US dollar

Argentina recorded a historic foreign trade exchange surplus of US$ 2.656 billion in May, Argentina's Trade Exchange (ICA) reported Thursday in Buenos Aires. The new figures surpassed the previous record of US$ 2.543 billion from May 2009. So far in 2024, Argentina has accumulated a balance of + US$ 8.8 billion.

After the devaluation of the peso in December, President Javier Milei's administration has kept a positive balance on the trade front since taking office, in addition to a surplus in public expenditures.

Last month, exports totaled US$ 7.622 billion (+21.7 % year-on-year), while the devaluation resulted in imports plummeting by 32.8% to US$ 4.966 billion.

Despite a rebound in imports, a positive outcome is still projected for 2024. According to the latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) of the Argentine Central Bank, exports are expected to end the year at around US$ 77.904 billion, while imports are expected to reach US$ 61.517 billion, for a surplus of around US$ 16.400 billion, driven among other items by agricultural exports now that last year's severe drought has been overcome.

After a May 2023 deficit of US$1,124 million as a result of the drought, exports grew by 21.7% year-on-year until the end of the year while imports fell by 32.8% interannually.

In this scenario, Economy Minister Luis Toto Caputo told agro-exporters that the “blend” dollar would remain until December, allowing a liquidation of 20% of these revenues in the financial market.

Analysts have warned about the need to monitor the cash base flows of export liquidation, given the fall experienced since May, even with the improvement observed for agricultural flows as the growing trend of exports in quantities will continue, mainly driven by the primary and energy sectors.

Regarding imports, the experts foresee that they will remain low although recovering in line with a peso appreciating against the US dollar.