MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil's 2024/25 soy crop could reach 165 million

Next season Brazil is anticipated to plant soybeans on 46.53 million hectares, up from 46.16 million hectares in the last cycle.

Next mid September Brazil begins sowing the 2024/25 soybean harvest expected to reach a record harvest of 165 million tons, and export forecasts of 102 million tons, according to the agribusiness consultancy Stone X.

 As the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, Brazil’s production and exports would see significant growth if weather conditions are favorable, following a challenging 2023/24 season marked by most adverse climate.

For the 2023/24 season, StoneX estimates a harvest of 149 million tons, down from 158.5 million in 2022/23, with exports expected to be 92 million tons, compared to the previous cycle’s record of 101.87 million tons. “The projected increase for 2024/25 is due to anticipated recovery in productivity, provided there are no major weather disruptions, and continued expansion in planted area,” explained Ana Luiza Lodi, market intelligence specialist at StoneX.

In the new season, productivity is expected to rise to 3.55 tons per hectare. However, acreage growth will be more modest compared to previous years due to less favorable price conditions for soybeans. Brazil is anticipated to plant soybeans on 46.53 million hectares, up from 46.16 million hectares in the last cycle.

Globally, soybean supply and demand are expected to be more balanced, influenced by a strong U.S. harvest, which has pressured prices. Domestic consumption in Brazil is projected to increase to 60 million tons, up from 57.5 million in the previous cycle, driven by the country’s key roles in meat and biodiesel production. The adoption of B15 biodiesel, which contains 15% biodiesel, is expected in 2025, up from the current 14% blend.

Despite strong demand, record production could lead to more comfortable ending stocks, estimated at 6.96 million tons, compared to around 3 million tons for 2023/24.

Regarding total corn production for 2024/25 is also expected to rise, reaching 123.14 million tons, up from 121.8 million in 2023/24, estimates StoneX. The increase comes despite a significant reduction in the area planted for the first corn crop, from 3.64 million hectares to 3.4 million hectares, reflecting farmers’ concerns over current price levels.

The largest reductions in planted area are seen in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Goiás. StoneX estimates that the first corn crop for 2024/25 will produce 24.96 million tons, a 4.2% decrease compared to the previous cycle. Although Brazil primarily grows corn in the second crop, StoneX has yet to provide a specific estimate for this “safrinha” second corn crop season. Current projections for the 2024/25 safrinha crop are based on the 2023/24 area and an average productivity of 5.6 tons per hectare.

Corn exports are projected to reach 37.5 million tons in the new cycle, compared to 40 million tons expected for 2023/24.